SOMEONE’S CRYSTAL BALL NEEDS CLEANING

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An article from 1996 by Bob Metcalf who “invented” ethernet and founded 3COM where he makes some dire predictions about the future of the Internet.

Among some of his gems of foresight:
– # Capacity. You’ve read that the Internet was designed to survive thermonuclear war, but it’s repeatedly been brought to its knees, its circuits choked, for example, by the reaction to one measly jury verdict in Los Angles. The Internet is intermittently overloaded, and the TCP/IP architecture doesn’t deal well with overloads. Furthermore, the Internet’s naive flat-rate business model is incapable of financing the new capacity it would need to serve continued growth, if there were any, but there won’t be, so no problem.

– # Security. Already most TCP/IP networks are not on the Internet but behind security fire walls, in Intranets. In early 1996, another series of major security breaches will drive the rest of the productive Internet to safety and out of reach.

Yes bandwidth and security remain problems but somehow the ‘Net keeps rolling along.

Read the entire article.

Via Linkfilter